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Lee County Forecast
Today

Today: Isolated showers after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Breezy.
Mostly Sunny
then Isolated
Showers
Tonight

Tonight: Isolated showers before 8pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East northeast wind 9 to 13 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Isolated
Showers then
Mostly Cloudy
Hi 87 °FLo 72 °F
Extended Forecast
Florida Weather Forecast

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 Southwest Florida Weather Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay National Weather Service



000
FXUS62 KTBW 200718
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
318 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
The upper level trough has moved eastward over Bermuda and extends
southwest over the Bahamas. Upper level ridging extends from the
central Gulf of Mexico northward over the southeast U.S. This ridge
will slowly shift east through the weekend and will be the dominant
upper feature through the period. On the surface, the main influence
to the weather over Florida will be from strong high pressure to the
north over the mid-Atlantic states. This will keep an east-northeast
wind flow over the region through the end of the week and into the
weekend with minimal rain chances between 10-30 percent each day.
Winds will generally be below 15 knots, however some gusts near 20
knots will be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.Long Term (Sunday through Next Thursday)...
The forecast for the Florida peninsula beyond Sunday will be highly
dependent on the evolution of an expected high amplitude
pattern forecast to develop over the central/eastern CONUS
through the middle of the week. There is a very strong
signal in the ensemble guidance that we will be seeing our
first significant cold frontal passage during the first half
of next week...with Tuesday being the most probable time
period. There is however still some questions around just
how "significant" the replacing airmass will be. Generally
speaking, NWP tends to have a cold bias in the days 4-8
period for our area, especially with early season cold
frontal passages. Make no mistake, it appears likely that we
will see quite a refreshing airmass here for the middle and
later portion of next week when compared to what we have
seen the past 3-5 months, it is just more uncertain whether
areas of the Nature coast will see 40s, or Tampa will see
temps drop into the 50s. These are plausible solutions,
however, will have to see if the typical biases begin to
show themselves in the next couple of model runs.

Ahead of this system, The pattern begins to really amplify into
the eastern half of the nation Sunday and Sunday night as
large scale troughing digs through the Central Plains toward
the MS valley. Already strong mid/upper ridging over the
eastern seaboard and Florida will further amplify in
response to the height falls to its west. The strength of
this downstream ridging looks to cause this troughing to
close off and slow down over the deep south during Monday. A
second piece of northern stream energy will then begin to
rapidly amplify into the eastern CONUS and finally propel
the initial shortwave eastward the across our region Monday
Night / Tuesday.

Our best rain chances of the long term forecast period...along
and ahead of an associated surface cold front will
accompany this shortwave passage. Warm and humid conditions
Sunday into Monday will be pushed south with the front, as a
cooler and much drier airmass begins to invade the FL
peninsula by later Tuesday and especially Tuesday night.
Many model members are suggesting an initial surge of drier
air later Tuesday, with a secondary push arriving Wednesday
with the deepest amplification of the eastern CONUS trough.

Showers and storm will push south of the region by later
Tuesday (as it appears now), and leave the remainder of the work
week with a dry forecast. Temperatures are currently
forecast to drop below average for the second half of the
work week, especially Wednesday night through Thursday
night...with the driest dewpoints we have seen here in the
FL peninsula in many months.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with dry conditions
expected at all terminals. Winds will remain out of the east-
northeast with some gusts around 15 knots during the afternoon
hours. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure to the north will be the dominant surface
feature influencing the weather over the coastal waters for the next
several days. Storm/rain chances will be very low, but the main
marine concern will be gusty east-northeast winds reaching small
craft advisory level at times over the next couple of days. The
weather pattern will change by the beginning of next week as a cold
front approaches the area. Winds will shift to the south by the
Monday ahead of the front and rain/storm chances will be on the
increase. Winds will further shift to the north-northwest by the
middle of next week in the wake of this front. Drier air and
decreasing rain chances expected into next week. No other marine
impacts expected.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will influence the weather over the region for the
next few days will minimal rain chances expected. A cold front will
move through the area by the beginning of next week with increasing
rain chances expected. Drier air will move into the area in the wake
of this front, but still expected to remain below any
critical fire weather threshold. No other fire weather
impacts expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  72  89  74 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  87  73  88  74 /  20  10  20  10
GIF  87  69  87  72 /  10   0  10  10
SRQ  88  72  89  74 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  88  66  88  71 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  86  74  87  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs
     to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion


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